Predict the amplitude and timing of solar cycle 26
In plain words
Space weather depends on how active the next solar cycle will be, and past forecasts have often missed.
Precise statement
Predict the 13-month smoothed maximum sunspot number (SILSO version 2) of cycle 26 and its date, using polar magnetic field precursors at the cycle 25/26 minimum, surface flux transport models and dynamo data assimilation. Answer: a forecast with uncertainty registered before the minimum and scored against the observed maximum.
What would settle it
Comparison of forecasts registered before the cycle 25/26 minimum with the observed cycle 26 maximum.
Status in the literature
Unverified note: it names recent work and was partly written without a live literature search; it awaits a check by an editor.
2024: cycle 25 reached its maximum in October 2024 with a smoothed sunspot number of about 161, above the 2019 NOAA-NASA panel forecast of 115.
Results
No results have been posted on this problem yet.
Post a result · how results are checked
Sign in to follow or save this problem
Comments (0)
Comments are not records: they are not signed, stamped or logged. How comments work
No comments yet.
Sign in to comment.