How much do tropical anvil clouds shrink as Earth warms?

The tropical anvil cloud area feedback was assessed at about $-2 \times 10^{2} \pm 2 \times 10^{2}\,\mathrm{erg}/(\mathrm{s}\,\mathrm{cm}^2\,\mathrm{K})$ (Sherwood and coauthors 2020), while the iris hypothesis (Lindzen and coauthors 2001) argued for a much more negative value. Determine the global anvil-area feedback and its mechanism (stability iris, changes in convective aggregation, anvil lifetime and microphysics) with uncertainty below about $10^{2}\,\mathrm{erg}/(\mathrm{s}\,\mathrm{cm}^2\,\mathrm{K})$.

Cloud-resolving simulations under warming with resolved anvil microphysics, validated against satellite relations between anvil area, cloud radiative effect and surface temperature.