Can paleoclimate evidence rule out climate sensitivity above 5 K?
In plain words
Several recent climate models warm by more than 5 degrees for doubled $\mathrm{CO_2}$. Past climates such as the last ice age may show this is too much.
Precise statement
Determine whether combined constraints from the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Pliocene, the early Eocene and the historical record exclude $\mathrm{ECS} > 5\ \mathrm{K}$ at the 95 percent level, accounting for state dependence of feedbacks and forcing uncertainties. An answer is a posterior probability for $\mathrm{ECS} > 5\ \mathrm{K}$ with stated assumptions.
What would settle it
Bayesian synthesis of paleoclimate proxies and model emergent constraints with explicit state-dependence and structural uncertainty.
Parent problems
- Special case of What is Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity? · open · from revision 1 The parent was revised since revision 1: it now states another question.
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