Why has the observed warming pattern damped Earth's apparent sensitivity?
In plain words
The eastern tropical Pacific has barely warmed in recent decades, unlike in most climate models, and this has made Earth look less sensitive than it may be. Whether the pattern is caused by the forcing or is natural variability is unknown.
Precise statement
Over roughly 1980 to 2020 the eastern equatorial Pacific and Southern Ocean warmed less than in coupled models, making the effective historical feedback more negative than the long-term feedback. Determine whether this sea surface temperature pattern is forced (and will persist) or internal variability (and will reverse), and the resulting correction to ECS inferred from historical warming. An answer is an attribution of the pattern with uncertainty and the implied pattern-effect correction.
What would settle it
Attribution of observed tropical Pacific trends with models that reproduce observed trends and their response to forcing.
Status in the literature
Unverified note: it names recent work and was partly written without a live literature search; it awaits a check by an editor.
A 2026 analysis (arXiv:2603.12515) reports recent weakening of the global radiative feedback.
Parent problems
- Special case of What is Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity? · open · from revision 1 The parent was revised since revision 1: it now states another question.
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