Does convective self-aggregation operate in Earth's real atmosphere?
In plain words
In computer models with uniform warm oceans, thunderstorms spontaneously gather into one cluster surrounded by dry air, which changes how much heat Earth sheds to space. Whether this clumping happens in reality and matters for climate is unclear.
Precise statement
Determine whether the spontaneous aggregation of convection found in radiative-convective equilibrium simulations (driven by longwave radiative, surface-flux and moisture feedbacks) operates in the observed tropics, and quantify its effect on outgoing longwave radiation, mean humidity and climate sensitivity. An answer is an observational metric of aggregation with a measured dependence on sea-surface temperature and a quantified radiative effect.
What would settle it
Satellite-based aggregation indices whose covariation with radiation and humidity matches model-predicted feedbacks after controlling for large-scale circulation.
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