Why does most volcanic unrest end without an eruption?
In plain words
Volcanoes often swell, shake and release gas for months, then calm down without erupting. Telling apart unrest that will lead to an eruption from unrest that will fade is one of the hardest parts of volcano forecasting.
Precise statement
Identify the physical processes that stall magma intrusions during unrest (solidification of dikes, stress barriers, volatile loss, insufficient overpressure) and derive measurable discriminants between unrest that culminates in eruption and unrest that does not. An answer is a criterion based on geodetic, seismic and gas data with demonstrated skill on a global catalogue of unrest episodes.
What would settle it
Retrospective and then prospective tests on a global unrest catalogue showing that a physics-based discriminant outperforms base rates in predicting eruption.
Results
No results have been posted on this problem yet.
Post a result · how results are checked
Sign in to follow or save this problem
Comments (0)
Comments are not records: they are not signed, stamped or logged. How comments work
No comments yet.
Sign in to comment.