Do post-merger gravitational-wave echoes reveal structure at the horizon scale? · revision history

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Title
Do post-merger gravitational-wave echoes reveal structure at the horizon scale?
Plain
If a black hole had a reflecting surface just outside where its horizon should be, part of the ringing would bounce back and forth and produce delayed repeated pulses called echoes. Finding or excluding them tests whether horizons are what general relativity says.
Precise
For a nonspinning remnant of mass $M$ with a partially reflecting surface at areal radius $r_s+\delta$, echoes repeat with delay Delta t ~ (4 G M/c^3) |ln(delta/r_s)|; a surface one Planck length $l_P=\sqrt{G\hbar/c^3}$, approximately 1.6 x 10^-33 cm, of proper distance outside the horizon has $\delta\sim l_P^2/r_s$, so Delta t ~ (8 G M/c^3) ln(r_s/l_P). Determine whether data contain such echoes and bound the surface reflectivity $R$ as a function of the proper distance of the surface from the horizon, down to $l_P$. An answer is a detection or upper limits on R.
Settled by
Template-based and model-independent echo searches in loud events with upper limits on R for a surface at Planck-scale proper distance.
Kind
well-posed
Answer type
yes-no
References
(empty)
Literature status
open
Status note
Tentative echo claims (2016-2017) were not confirmed by later searches, including collaboration analyses through GWTC-3.
Posed since
2016