Can laser-driven inertial fusion reach target gain of 10?
In plain words
The best laser fusion shots now release a few times more fusion energy than the laser energy that hits the target. A power plant needs much more, and it is not known whether any target design can reach ten times with today's laser energies.
Precise statement
Target gain $G$ $= \text{fusion yield}/\text{laser energy}$ on target exceeded 1 at the National Ignition Facility in December 2022 with about $2.05 \times 10^{13}$ erg of laser energy. Determine whether $G$ of at least 10 is reachable at laser energy of about $2 \times 10^{13}$ to $3 \times 10^{13}$ erg by any design (indirect drive, direct drive, shock ignition, magnetized targets) given measured limits from hydrodynamic instabilities, ablator-fuel mix and drive asymmetry. An answer is an experiment, or a radiation-hydrodynamics design validated against existing ignition shots.
What would settle it
An implosion with G above 10, or validated simulations showing no design reaches it at that laser energy.
Status in the literature
Unverified note: it names recent work and was partly written without a live literature search; it awaits a check by an editor.
NIF reached target gain 4.13 on 7 April 2025 ($8.6 \times 10^{13}$ erg yield from $2.08 \times 10^{13}$ erg of laser energy) and about 3.8 in June 2026; gain 10 has not been reached.
Problems built on this one
Special cases
- Control of laser-plasma instabilities in direct-drive ignition · open
- Origin of yield variability between nominally identical ignition shots · open
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