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It is unknown whether such signs announce a coming flip.","posed_since":"","precise":"Using satellite-era, historical and archeomagnetic field models (axial dipole decline since about 1840, growth of the South Atlantic Anomaly), determine whether any observable statistic of the core-surface field forecasts a reversal or excursion within $10^{3}$ to $10^{4}$ yr with skill above chance. An answer is a forecasting statistic validated retrospectively on paleomagnetic records and on long dynamo simulations, or a demonstration, on long reversing dynamo simulations, that no core-surface statistic has skill above chance at these lead times.","problem_ref":"f312f67f50211e9c564e53eca1ab9bee06ef68a271e98fa3a08a980e5ab4edab","references":"","settled_by":"Retrospective forecast tests on long reversing dynamo simulations and on high-resolution sediment records of past reversals and excursions.","status_note":"","title":"Can an impending reversal or excursion be detected from today's 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