{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"bf585410cf097551558b19eef75a59f49e0162f458bb82791d7585ab7516c647","created":"2026-10-15T23:43:22Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["094670e17c89bda2d7e78d0aed2865d6d29d2c0b26d972e5476d66b5d0397daa","ce59fb6cd812fc05906d0c60a71c75ea22bc686bcf38e7c3ef7010834d98ee7b"],"salt":"17c4b7c12ed6281426606abf2938094f4fc1661c8af0be9ecc9fbf6f9e7fdb44","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"plasma.disruptions.predictor-transfer","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"2","parents":[],"plain":"Machine-learning programs can warn of an oncoming disruption on the tokamak they were trained on. A new large machine like ITER cannot afford many disruptions to learn from, so the predictor must work almost from the start.","posed_since":"","precise":"Data-driven and physics-based predictors reach detection rates near 90 percent or better with warning times of order 0.01 to 0.1 s on single devices. Determine whether a predictor trained on existing devices plus a small number of discharges from a new, larger device meets reactor requirements (e.g. above 95 percent detection, below 5 percent false alarms, warning time longer than the mitigation response time) on that device. An answer is a demonstrated cross-device transfer with these metrics.","problem_ref":"094670e17c89bda2d7e78d0aed2865d6d29d2c0b26d972e5476d66b5d0397daa","references":"","settled_by":"A blind cross-machine test in which a predictor trained without data from the target device meets the stated metrics on it.","status_note":"","title":"Can a disruption predictor trained elsewhere protect a new tokamak?","topic_ref":null},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"fc499d4e2542f8f2cb689c92494324ec6e99f2e8f7fe83d7508cf9b4e414cd05","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"dec4a84d238895bfe4e422362f9bb0c942c5515aa674a5f99cccb2173a3b48b5","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"CnMDucTEwG-T0GzBHotnxcn30S5GyRCHOHbm2AwZDStdqnA5KcgMip8jwCG-dG7OZatK9B2P-9BMyx_9RJUPAQ"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"fc499d4e2542f8f2cb689c92494324ec6e99f2e8f7fe83d7508cf9b4e414cd05","leaf_index":3558}