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The small flaws in the capsule or laser drive responsible for this have not been pinned down quantitatively.","posed_since":"","precise":"Attribute the shot-to-shot yield variability of igniting NIF implosions quantitatively among capsule defects and ablator inhomogeneity, fill-tube and support-tent perturbations, low-mode drive asymmetry and ablator-fuel mix. An answer is a model that predicts each shot's yield from pre-shot metrology and laser data to within 30 percent.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"A blind prediction of yields for a series of new shots using only pre-shot data.","status_note":"","title":"Origin of yield variability between nominally identical ignition 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