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Title: Can laser-driven inertial fusion reach target gain of 10
Plain: The best laser fusion shots now release a few times more fusion energy than the laser energy that hits the target. A power plant needs much more, and it is not known whether any target design can reach ten times with today's laser energies.
Precise: Target gain $G$ = fusion yield / laser energy on target exceeded 1 at the National Ignition Facility in December 2022 with about 2.05e13 erg of laser energy. Determine whether G of at least 10 is reachable at laser energy of about 2e13 to 3e13 erg by any design (indirect drive, direct drive, shock ignition, magnetized targets) given measured limits from hydrodynamic instabilities, ablator-fuel mix and drive asymmetry. An answer is an experiment, or a radiation-hydrodynamics design validated against existing ignition shots.
Settled by: An implosion with G above 10, or validated simulations showing no design reaches it at that laser energy.
Kind: well-posed
Answer type: yes-no
References: (empty)
Literature status: open
Status note: NIF reached target gain 4.13 on 7 April 2025 (8.6e13 erg yield from 2.08e13 erg of laser energy) and about 3.8 in June 2026; gain 10 has not been reached.
Posed since: (empty)